Two weeks ago I took a look ahead at what to expect from the 2nd quarter FEC numbers.
US Senate race
I said then the numbers don’t matter a lot as both candidates will have plenty of money. After the reports have been filed, both candidates have plenty of money.
1st CD
Carol Shea-Porter raised $127K in the first quarter of the year and the question became would that greatly affect her numbers? Shea-Porter had the quarter she needed as she raised more than a quarter of a million and finished with as much money on hand as both of her opponents combined.
On the Republican side John Stephen outraised Jeb Bradley by $40K, but still trails the ex-Congressman by more than $200K.
2nd CD
I said in my preview this was the critical quarter for Bob Clegg and he raised $65K while dropping in another $150K of his own money to finish with $156K on hand. Not nearly enough money to compete with Congressman Paul Hodes, but enough to make himself the overwhelming front-runner on the Republican side. Another thing we wanted to watch was Jennifer Horn and if the rumors of her financial situation were true. They are! Horn tried to spin she had raised $60K, but in reality she only raised about $25K from individuals. She gets to the $60k by counting in-kind contributions and a $25K loan. The news gets even worse for Horn as she only has $4700 she can use in the primary while the other $16K she has on hand cannot be used until the general election. Horn actually has the least amount of primary money on hand of all the Republicans as both Grant Bosse and Jim Steiner have more than she does. Its hard to see how she goes on from here.
The year 2008 brought many fun memories for New Hampshire political junkies. From Hillary's tear in Portsmouth to the >
To wrap up what we've seen so far: although New Hampshire remained a solidly Republican state in presidential elections through the 1980s, ... >
Hey Wally, pass to kool-aid
When will Wally go on the Clegg payroll? Since you don't get out of your ivory tower much, you may have missed that Jennifer Horn is the only campaign with any excitement and actual volunteers. I walked in the Amherst parade with Jennifer and 30 other supporters. Bob Clegg had five paid staffers walking with him and has his staff stand on street coners holding signs all because he has no volunteers, no excitement, and no support.
My vote is not for sale, and yours shouldn't be either Wally.
Actually Wally, Bradley did
Actually Wally, Bradley did not "raise" nearly as much as you report. When you break down the numbers, he's "loaned" is campaign over $350,000, including $90,000 in Q1 and $50,000 last quarter. In other words, while Mr. Stephen has enjoyed support to the tune of over $260,000 FROM INDIVIDUALS in the last 2 quarters, Bradley saw less than half of that amount.
In 2006, CSP called Bradley a "borrow and spend" candidate. She was right. That's what Jeb does. He thinks about the next election, not the next generation. Bottom line, Jeb failed miserably as a congressman, lost support among real fiscal conservatives, underestimated the campaign of CSP, then bonused the staff of failures who worked with him to lose. He left over $300,000 of unspent money in his political coffers in 2006. In short, he committed political malpractice in several, unforgivable ways. Now, he claims to be an agent of change? Puh-leeze, Jeb, I may have been born at night, but it was NOT last night.
Jeb Bradley is applying for a job at which he proved to be a failure. As a businessman, I'd never consider re-hiring a failure. After all, we have to live by the old axiom, fool me once, shame on you, but fool me twice, shame on me. I won't get fooled again and it appears that, when you look at from whence the money is coming and to whom, the citizens of the State of NH won't either.
Horn Should Drop Out
It is getting to the point that Jennifer Horn needs to save face and drop out. Bob Clegg is obviously the best choice for the GOP because he can generate money and is not afraid to put his own wallet in the game. I predict we see Horn abandoning the race in the coming week or two.
Bob Clegg the frontrunner?
Bob Clegg the frontrunner? That's a joke. The only thing Bob Clegg has is his good ole' boy attitude. He thinks that all he has to do is throw his money (or his wife's money) into a campaign and *poof* he will get elected. Evidently Clegg has found another way to waste his money by buying off dear Wally. Bob Clegg is the spitting image of what is wrong with politics today. How can one change Washington and bring real reform with the self-serving politics of Bob Clegg?
Horn Support - Priceless
Anyone who suggests that Jennifer Horn should drop out obviously hasn’t been following the race very carefully. Jennifer Horn has the most volunteers, supporters and individual donors. This tremendous support is evident everywhere Jennifer goes. I attended the Petrone fundraising event at the beginning of this month which was well attended with over 100 people! Regardless of the money Jennifer has indeed raised, the support she is gaining in the community is priceless. Horn has the only campaign I have seen that continues to build their volunteer base daily. These volunteers work tirelessly reaching out to voters and gaining new supporters every day! Horn’s true grassroots campaign with dedicated volunteers is what will win her the republican primary!
2nd CD
Essentially it looks as though this race has come down to Clegg and Horn. Clegg has the initial financial advantage due to his wife's deep pockets, but Horn has a much stronger grassroots donor pool with more small donors. Down the stretch I think Horn's fundamentals give her the advantage, but Clegg could possibly switch gears and get serious about campaigning. If Horn keeps up what she is doing and continues to build momentum she could be out in front by the end of August. Horn will be the Goliath that the other candidates, especially Horn, will chip away at steadily until he is beat.
Bosse is somewhat of a darkhorse at this point, but a very dark one at that. He simply is not a candidate that voters would naturally be attracted to which means he will have to work ten times harder then the rest. His fundraising numbers look better this time around, but it is doubtful that his appeal will broaden beyond the few little know "activists" highlighted in his "Posse".
Stiener is an attractive candidate on paper. He draws from a pretty wide background of experience, but his inability to raise funds makes him pretty much unviable. It's too bad for him. He would be a much better dark horse than Bosse if he had something approaching a real campaign structure.
Where's The Beef?
This is a rather elementary and cursory look at an important issue. Where is the analysis of PAC and out of stater money compared to instate support? Where is the investigating into which industries are donating the most? What about overall expenditures and debt? Focusing only on cash-on-hand can be and is misleading when it comes to measuring a campaign's overall strength.
I do like this site, but when it comes to deconstructing and interpretting data that is handed to you on a platter there is much room for improvement.
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