Palin's persuadables

Well, now she's gone and done it. Thanks to Sarah Palin, hockey moms are the new soccer moms. (Fellow pundits, make sure to update cliches accordingly.)

Besides watching how voters in Rochester, Manchester and Claremont react, the more immediate payoff of the Palin speech may be among the Republican base in New Hampshire.

Looking back at the University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll in July, John McCain only enjoyed 78 percent support among self-identified Republicans. Twelve percent supported Barack Obama.

Seventy-eight to 12 sounds like a big lead, but four years ago, George W. Bush won Republicans by a score of 91 percent to 8 percent, according to exit polls.

And in July 2004, Bush already had the base sewn up, 89 percent to 6 percent, again according to the UNH Survey Center.

And let's also remember that in the primary last January, McCain lost self-identified conservatives to Romney, 38 percent to 30 percent. He only gained 28 percent support from self-identified evangelical or born-again Christians, in a rough three-way tie with Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee.

In the July UNH poll, 20 percent of conservatives -- 20! -- said they were still trying to decide between McCain and Obama. Only 56 percent of conservatives said they had definitely decided, compared to 66 percent of liberals.

The question today: How many of those glum conservatives nursing a beer last night in front of the TV actually had smiles on their faces by the time the Alaska governor concluded her speech?

Dante Scala teaches American politics at the University of New Hampshire and blogs at Graniteprof.